Blue Jays vs Rays Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 6:40 PM ET. Moneyline: Blue Jays +130 (Circa) at Rays -132 (Caesars) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Junior Caminero at +425 headlines the Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +425 | Kalshi | 19.0% | 36 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 35 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) | +550 | BetMGM 🎁 | 15.4% | 3 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
| Jesús Sánchez (TOR) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 24 |
| Charles McAdoo (TOR) | +700 | TheScore | 12.5% | 18 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | +712 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.3% | 35 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +755 | Kalshi | 11.7% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Tropicana Field: park index 121.7 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — punishes curveballs, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +407 · NoVig +388
- George Springer (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +525
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 31% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +755 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +700
- Charles McAdoo (TOR) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at HardRock | exchanges: NoVig +641
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +525 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +441
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at TheScore | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +809
- Alejandro Kirk (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +614
- Brett Bateman (TOR) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1150 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +950 · ProphetX +1029 · NoVig +1011
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays today? Junior Caminero at +425 (Kalshi) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
