Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays home run picks: this board was built for the Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays game on August 19, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Blue Jays vs Rays Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Wed 6:40 PM ET. On the mound: Max Scherzer (Blue Jays) vs Drew Rasmussen (Rays). Moneyline: Blue Jays +193 (Caesars) at Rays -200 (HardRock) — best prices across 11 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Junior Caminero (+331) and Victor Mesa Jr. (+471) lead tonight's Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +331 | Kalshi | 23.2% | 32 |
| Víctor Víctor Mesa (MIA) | +360 | Caesars | 21.7% | 1 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) | +471 | NoVig | 17.5% | 13 |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | +564 | DraftKings 🎁 | 15.1% | 28 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 32 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 31 |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 29 |
| Ryan Vilade (TB) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 6 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 19, 2026 · 10:06 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Tropicana Field: park index 122.1 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +331 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +331 · Polymarket +319 · ProphetX +318 · NoVig +308
- George Springer (TOR) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 64% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +608 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +608 · NoVig +567
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +525
- Alejandro Kirk (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +657 · NoVig +733
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 43% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +500 · NoVig +567
- Jesús Sánchez (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +810 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +770
- Brett Bateman (TOR) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1350 at BetMGM | exchanges: ProphetX +804 · NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
More from these experts on Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays. Cobi O'Connell posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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