Abimelec Ortiz (+539) and Griffin Conine (+539) lead tonight's Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 30 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Daylen Lile (WSH) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 34 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 34 |
| Owen Caissie (MIA) | +650 | Bet365 | 13.3% | 30 |
| Andres Chaparro (WSH) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 21 |
| Joe Mack (MIA) | +750 | Fanatics | 11.8% | 21 |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | +800 | Unibet | 11.1% | 31 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at loanDepot park: park index 88.9 · wind 2 mph.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — on the bat alone — homers every 14 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +450 at Bet365
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +460 at BetRivers
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — on the bat alone — homers every 27 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +549
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — homers every 32 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519
- Dylan Crews (WSH) — on the bat alone — homers every 30 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +715 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +715
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — homers every 42 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at BetRivers
- Brady House (WSH) — on the bat alone — homers every 42 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at BetRivers
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — 44% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1029 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +1029
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+2200). Bet now → Fanatics
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Brad Lord Under 2.5 Total Strikeouts (-107). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins. BGrebbs posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
