The Washington Nationals @ New York Mets board opens with CJ Abrams at +429 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +429 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 18.9% | 36 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 37 |
| Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 30 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +575 | Bet365 | 14.8% | 29 |
| Jorge Polanco (NYM) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 28 |
| Daylen Lile (WSH) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
| Jared Young (NYM) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citi Field: park index 101.5 · wind 12 mph.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — 33% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +412 · NoVig +376
- Jared Young (NYM) — 26% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +525
- Dylan Crews (WSH) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 12 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +525
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +412 · NoVig +376
- Jorge Polanco (NYM) — 37% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +545
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 12 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 31% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +669
- Brady House (WSH) — 15% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 12 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 54% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +575 at BetMGM | exchanges: NoVig +545
- Carson Benge (NYM) — 9% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +567
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Washington Nationals Moneyline (+153). Bet now
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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