TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Napheesa Collier (44%), A'ja Wilson (25%), Caitlin Clark (18%). Every verdict below was made price-blind from live fetched data, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
The crowd's conviction on A'ja Wilson (77 cents) runs into a standings table where her Aces sit third by record behind Minnesota and Golden State. MVP voting weights individual dominance, but team success is the classic tiebreaker: and that tension between the price and the fetched table is what the panel had to price.
What The Models Were Given
Each model saw the complete live 2026 WNBA standings, sorted by record, fetched at generation time. Eight model seats were asked on every outcome; where a seat's verdict did not return, its table cell shows an em dash and the blend averages the seats that answered.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
A'ja Wilson: market 77¢, AI blend 25% (52 points below the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Aces are 18-8 (3rd), Wilson is a top candidate but faces stiff competition from players on better teams like Minnesota's Collier."
Napheesa Collier: market 2¢, AI blend 44% (42 points above the crowd). Claude Fable: "Collier is the dominant scorer on the league-best 22-6 Lynx, the clear MVP frontrunner, though rivals could still overtake."
Caitlin Clark: market 7¢, AI blend 18% (11 points above the crowd). GLM 5.2: "Caitlin Clark is a statistical powerhouse, but the Fever's 5th-place standing hurts her MVP chances against top-seeded stars." [Editor's note: this premise could not be verified against a fetched roster ledger at publish time. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as such.]
Olivia Miles: market 5¢, AI blend 1.3% (4 points below the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Olivia Miles plays for the 13th-place Chicago Sky (9-18), and MVP voters heavily favor top teams, making her chances extremely slim." [Editor's note: this premise could not be verified against a fetched roster ledger at publish time. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as such.]
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napheesa Collier | 2¢ | 44% | 36% | 55% | 55% | 42% | 38% | 30% | 40% | 55% |
| A'ja Wilson | 77¢ | 25% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 20% | 32% | 28% | 32% | 12% |
| Caitlin Clark | 7¢ | 18% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 35% | 12% | 28% |
| Paige Bueckers | 9¢ | 11% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 7% |
| Breanna Stewart | 3¢ | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 8% |
| Satou Sabally | 1¢ | 4% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 0.5% | 4% |
| Aliyah Boston | 1¢ | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| Alyssa Thomas | 1¢ | 3% | — | 4% | 4% | 12% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.1% |
| Kelsey Plum | 1¢ | 3% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1.5% | 3% | 0.5% | 2% |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 1¢ | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| Rhyne Howard | 1¢ | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1.5% | 3% | 2% |
| Jackie Young | 1¢ | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Allisha Gray | 1¢ | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1.0% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | 2¢ | 2% | 1.8% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3% | 0.5% |
| Jonquel Jones | 3¢ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3% |
| Olivia Miles | 5¢ | 1.3% | 4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kahleah Copper | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Azzi Fudd | 1¢ | 0.9% | 2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| Angel Reese | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Dominique Malonga | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Gabby Williams | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 1¢ | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Nneka Ogwumike | 1¢ | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Marina Mabrey | 1¢ | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Model estimates generated July 27, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Why do the blend percentages sum past 100% on an exclusive award?
Each model scores every candidate independently, so small overshoots accumulate across a large field. The relative order and the gaps matter more than the raw sum; the scoreboard grades each contract on its own settlement.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
What data did the models see?
Each model saw the complete live 2026 WNBA standings, sorted by record, fetched at generation time.
