Kyle Schwarber at +277 headlines the St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +277 | NoVig | 26.5% | 37 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 36 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 34 |
| Joshua Baez (STL) | +682 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.8% | 29 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | +735 | ProphetX | 12.0% | 32 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | +794 | ProphetX | 11.2% | 32 |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | +804 | ProphetX | 11.1% | 32 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | +841 | Kalshi | 10.6% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citizens Bank Park: park index 125.0 · wind 4 mph.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 15% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +857 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +857
- Jordan Walker (STL) — homers every 24 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Iván Herrera (STL) — homers every 20 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637
- Joshua Báez (STL) — 33% of his damage flies pull-side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +575 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — punishes sliders 14% of the time, and that is 52% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +963 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +963
- Blaze Jordan (STL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1078 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +1078
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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