Ben Rice (+434) and Trent Grisham (+480) lead tonight's Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 32 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | +480 | Unibet | 17.2% | 31 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | +490 | Circa | 16.9% | 25 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | +540 | FanDuel 🎁 | 15.6% | 2 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 28 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 31 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +650 | Unibet | 13.3% | 31 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | +663 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.1% | 21 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 21, 2026 · 01:15 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Yankee Stadium: park index 123.2 · wind 2 mph.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — homers every 17 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +377
- George Springer (TOR) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · homers every 20 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +627
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — on the bat alone — nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +833
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — punishes changeups and splitters 14% of the time, and that is 1% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +430 at BetRivers
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- Charles McAdoo (TOR) — 32% of his damage flies pull-side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1050 at Fanatics
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — on the bat alone — homers every 28 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at BetRivers
- Alejandro Kirk (TOR) — homers every 29 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +715
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Blue Jays/Yankees Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-132). Bet now
- BiscoBets on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (+107). Bet now → NoVig
- SEvansBets on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (+115). Bet now → Bet365
More from these experts on Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees. BiscoBets, Rebel Mickie, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
