The Quick Answer
The WNBA parlay of the day is a two-leg Bet365 ticket for Sunday, September 27, the first night of the WNBA playoffs: Georgia Amoore Under 3.5 assists (+130) in Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream (7:00 PM ET) and Kaila Charles Under 6.5 points (-105) in Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries (9:00 PM ET). The combined price pays about +349 against a de-vigged fair near +247, a ticket-level edge of about 29.6%, and the first leg tips at 7:00 PM ET. The full board, the row in Minneapolis I wanted and could not take, and the ledger graded in public are below.
Sunday's Board: Four Game 1s, Twelve Rows Past Fair
Four WNBA playoff games tip Sunday, every one of them a Game 1 of a best-of-three, and our screen graded 12 rows past fair when it captured the board at 10:02 AM ET. Ten of the 12 are unders, which is what this screen usually looks like; the juice on a prop board lives on the over side. What makes tonight different is the minutes. A Game 1 is a minutes story: the rotation shrinks to the people the coach trusts, and the ball goes where the coach wants it. For Golden State that means Kaila Charles stays on the bench. For Washington it means Georgia Amoore, a starter who averages 22.9 minutes, hands the ball to Sonia Citron when the game gets serious, the way she did in both wins over Atlanta. The two legs on this ticket are bets on those two coaches doing what they have already done.
| Play | Game (Tip ET) | Book & Price | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Amoore Under 3.5 Assists | Mystics @ Dream (7:00 PM) | Bet365 +130 | -105 | 17.8% |
| Shakira Austin Under 2.5 Assists | Mystics @ Dream (7:00 PM) | Bet365 +115 | -119 | 16.8% |
| Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 Assists | Liberty @ Lynx (2:00 PM) | Bet365 +110 | -116 | 12.7% |
| Kaila Charles Under 6.5 Points | Wings @ Valkyries (9:00 PM) | Bet365 -105 | -129 | 10.0% |
| Michaela Onyenwere Under 2.5 Rebounds | Mystics @ Dream (7:00 PM) | Bet365 +100 | -115 | 7.0% |
| Maddy Siegrist Under 7.5 Points | Wings @ Valkyries (9:00 PM) | Bet365 -115 | -128 | 5.0% |
| Veronica Burton Under 5.5 Assists | Wings @ Valkyries (9:00 PM) | Bet365 +120 | +112 | 3.8% |
| Aliyah Boston Under 8.5 Rebounds | Fever @ Aces (4:00 PM) | Bet365 +110 | +103 | 3.5% |
| Sonia Citron Under 4.5 Assists | Mystics @ Dream (7:00 PM) | Caesars +102 | -104 | 3.0% |
| Jordin Canada Under 6.5 Assists | Mystics @ Dream (7:00 PM) | Bet365 +120 | +114 | 2.8% |
| Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 Threes | Liberty @ Lynx (2:00 PM) | Bet365 +135 | +129 | 2.6% |
| Kaitlyn Chen Over 4.5 Points | Wings @ Valkyries (9:00 PM) | Fanatics +110 | +105 | 2.4% |
The row at the top is the one the whole night turns on. Bet365 is posting +130, a 43.5% price, on Amoore under 3.5 assists when the rest of the market de-vigs it to 51.2%, fair -105, and that gap makes it the widest row on the board. The fair is a coin flip because the 3.5 sits a tenth above her 3.4 season average. The case below is that the average blends two different players, and the one who shows up against Atlanta has handed out a single assist in 50 minutes against them.
The book question answers itself. Bet365 holds ten of the 12 rows and has a number in all four games, so the ticket is a Bet365 ticket and the two rows at Caesars and Fanatics are singles for anyone shopping one leg at a time. The game question is harder. Five of the 12 rows live in Mystics at Dream, four in Wings at Valkyries, two in Liberty at Lynx and one in Fever at Aces, and this column runs its parlay on one leg per game and one book per slip. Amoore is the 7:00 leg because she carries the widest number in the game and the strongest log, and the Austin and Onyenwere versions of that leg get their own paragraphs further down. Charles is the 9:00 leg because she carries the widest row in that game, and the other points under in it, Maddy Siegrist's, is a trap I get to below.
That leaves two games I did not use, and the reasons matter. Aliyah Boston under 8.5 rebounds at +110 is 3.5% past fair on the screen and a hard pass on the floor: she is questionable for Game 1 with a lower-leg issue, and her three games against the Aces this season went 10, 11 and 12 rebounds. The July 31 ticket had this exact leg at 8.5, and she grabbed 9. Jonquel Jones under 2.5 assists is the row I wanted and could not take, for two reasons that get their own section. The rest of the board is thin. Sonia Citron under 4.5 assists at Caesars is a fade of a guard who has gone over that number in 8 of her last 10. Jordin Canada under 6.5 at +120 is a fade of the Dream's engine, who averages 7.4 a night. Veronica Burton under 5.5 at +120 is a coin flip on her season, 21 of 41, and she handed out 8 in Tuesday's overtime loss. The two overs at the bottom, Leonie Fiebich over 1.5 threes at +135 and Kaitlyn Chen over 4.5 points at +110, are a shooter who has made none in her last two games and a reserve who scored 18 in 21 minutes Thursday. None of them is a ticket. The market is awake on Sunday. It is a step slow on two players whose minutes it has priced from the wrong game, and that is the ticket.
Leg 1: Georgia Amoore Under 3.5 Assists (+130)
Georgia Amoore has started all 40 of her games for Sydney Johnson and finished very few of them. She averages 22.9 minutes, which tells you the job: run the first unit, hand the ball to Sonia Citron when it gets tight, sit. Citron plays 33 minutes a night and averages more assists than Amoore does. The 3.5 is priced for the guard who starts the game. The bet is on the guard who watches the end of it.
Against Atlanta this season she has one assist in 50 minutes. One. The June 6 game at State Farm Arena was a 109-77 rout, she played 23 minutes and handed out one. The two Mystics wins over the Dream, 81-76 on July 2 and 79-74 on August 7, she played 13 and 14 minutes and handed out none. Johnson won both of those games by shortening her, and a Game 1 on the road against the No. 4 seed is exactly the kind of night a coach shortens a guard again.
| Georgia Amoore, 2026 | Games | Assists per game | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 40 | 3.4 | 23 of 40 |
| 23 Minutes Or Fewer | 21 | 2.5 | 16 of 21 |
| 24 Minutes Or More | 19 | 4.4 | 7 of 19 |
| Vs. Atlanta Dream | 3 | 0.3 | 3 of 3 |
The minutes row is the whole prop. In her 21 games at 23 minutes or fewer she averages 2.5 assists and stays under 3.5 in 16 of them. In her 19 games at 24 or more she averages 4.4 and stays under in 7. Those are two different players wearing one season average, and the line is set on the average. Tonight's version, on the road in a playoff game against a defense that pressures the ball, is the short one.
The other half is who she is passing against. Atlanta leads the league in steals at 9.1 a game. Washington commits the most turnovers in the league at 14.7 a game, and Amoore herself averages nearly two turnovers a night. Karl Smesko's guards take the ball away and the Mystics give it away, and an assist under against that combination is a bet on possessions ending in Atlanta's hands instead of a teammate's. Her one assist in the June rout came with a turnover next to it. So did her zero in July, and her zero in August came with two.
I know how the last one went. The Sept. 17 edition had this exact leg, she handed out 5 in 23 minutes at Chicago, and it cost the ticket. She followed it with 3 at Indiana on Sept. 20 and 1 against the same Chicago team on Thursday, 23 minutes each. Three post-break games, three 23-minute nights, 5, 3 and 1, and the same opponent produced both the high and the low. That spread is what 23 minutes looks like: the minutes set the ceiling and the assists inside them bounce around. Atlanta's pressure lowers the ceiling, and the three games against the Dream say by how much.
The risk is garbage time. If the Dream run this one the way they ran the June game, Amoore plays her 23 minutes and some of them come after the game is decided, which is when second-unit possessions hand cheap assists to whoever is holding the ball. The June game is the counter: 32-point rout, 23 minutes, one assist. The other risk is Washington keeping it close and Johnson riding the point guard through the fourth, which has happened in zero of three tries against this opponent. Either way the number to beat is four, and she has reached four in 17 games out of 40, none of them against Atlanta.
Leg 2: Kaila Charles Under 6.5 Points (-105)
Kaila Charles has two jobs in Natalie Nakase's rotation, and the line is priced for the wrong one. Off the bench, which is 32 of her 41 games, she plays 18.2 minutes, takes 4.8 shots, scores 5.0 points and stays under 6.5 in 24 of 32. As a starter, nine games, she plays 26.2 minutes, takes 9.1 shots, scores 9.3 and stays under in one of nine. Same player, two props. Bet365 is offering the bench version at -105 against a fair of -129 because eight days ago she was the starter version: 16 points on 17 shots against Seattle on Sept. 19, with Gabby Williams, Cecilia Zandalasini and Janelle Salaun all missing from the box score.
They are back. Williams, Zandalasini, Kayla Thornton, Kiah Stokes and Veronica Burton started Tuesday at Portland and Thursday at Los Angeles, and Charles came off the bench both nights: 26 minutes and 6 points on 7 shots in the overtime loss at Portland, 22 minutes and 3 points on 2 shots in the one-point win in Los Angeles. Iliana Rupert is the only name on Golden State's report, listed out since May. Nakase has the full lineup for Game 1, and a full lineup makes Charles a bench guard again.
| Kaila Charles, 2026 | Games | Minutes | Shots | Points | Under 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off The Bench | 32 | 18.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 24 of 32 |
| As A Starter | 9 | 26.2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 1 of 9 |
| Five Or Fewer Shots | 21 | 15.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 19 of 21 |
| Six Or More Shots | 20 | 24.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 6 of 20 |
| Vs. Dallas Wings | 3 | 21.0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2 of 3 |
The prop is a shot count. With five or fewer attempts she averages 3.2 points and has stayed under 6.5 in 19 of 21. With six or more she averages 8.8 and has stayed under in 6 of 20. Bench Charles takes 4.8 shots a night and starter Charles takes 9.1, so you are betting on which one shows up, and Thursday's box score already told you. The Wings row is the one that tells the same story from the other side: Dallas has lost all three meetings this season, 91-80, 94-76 and 78-70, and Charles scored 6, 9 and 5 in them, the 9 coming in her one 27-minute night of the three.
Dallas is without Alanna Smith for Game 1 with a lower-leg injury, and a thinner Wings frontcourt does nothing for Charles either way; her shots come from her own rotation, not the opponent's. Where Smith's absence matters is the Siegrist row, which I get to below. The Valkyries play the lowest-scoring, tightest offense on this board, 82.2 points a game with the fewest turnovers in the league at 10.4, and a careful, low-scoring game is a game where a bench guard touches the ball on the second unit and passes it.
The risk is a rout. Golden State is the No. 2 seed and a clear home favorite, and the Valkyries beat Dallas by 11, 18 and 8 this season. If Game 1 is decided by the fourth quarter, Nakase empties the bench and Charles gets the minutes she is not supposed to get: off the bench at 23 or more minutes she has gone under 6.5 in only 2 of 6, and she reached 26 in Tuesday's overtime loss at Portland, so the extra minutes do not need a rout to arrive. That is the hole in the leg, and it is why it sits second on the ticket at a shorter price instead of first. The Dallas counter is Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale in a game the Wings have to have, which is the version of the night where the rotation stays tight and Charles takes four shots.
The De-Vig Math: +247 Fair, +349 Payout
The worked example, using only the prices above:
- The payout. Convert each price to decimal odds and multiply: 2.30 (Amoore at +130) x 1.95 (Charles at -105) = 4.49, about a +349 American price. A $100 ticket profits about $349 if both legs cash.
- The fair price. The de-vigged win probabilities are 51.2% and 56.3%. Independent games multiply straight: the ticket cashes about 28.9% of the time, a fair price near +247.
- The edge. Getting +349 on a +247 proposition is a ticket-level edge of about 29.6%, most of it from the Amoore leg. That number is large for this column, and the honest version of why is that the market has left a shortened guard's assist line at her full-season average on a playoff night. Edges like that get corrected, which is why the price at tip matters more than the price I saw at 10:02 AM. The expected value calculator guide walks the multiplication step by step.
The ledger below carries 18 graded editions, one no-bet and tonight's slip, and it does not skip the losses:
| Slip | Legs | Combined Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, July 17 | Fam U12.5 pts + N. Ogwumike U18.5 pts (Hard Rock) | 3.51 decimal | Lost (Fam: 16 points) |
| Friday, July 31 | Citron U3.5 ast + F. Johnson U4.5 reb + Boston U8.5 reb (Bet365) | +728 | Lost (Citron: 5 assists; Boston: 9 rebounds) |
| Saturday, Aug 1 | Copper U2.5 ast + C. Gray U1.5 threes (Bet365) | 3.78 decimal | Both legs cashed |
| Sunday, Aug 2 | Wheeler U9.5 pts + G. Williams U2.5 reb (Bet365) | 4.30 decimal | Lost (Wheeler: 12 points) |
| Wednesday, Aug 5 | F. Johnson U15.5 pts + R. Howard U3.5 threes + Wheeler U2.5 reb (Bet365) | 5.36 decimal | Lost (Howard: 5 threes) |
| Thursday, Aug 6 | Wilson U3.5 ast + Engstler U2.5 ast (Bet365) | +245 | Both legs cashed |
| Saturday, Aug 8 | N. Howard U2.5 ast + Engstler U2.5 ast (Bet365) | +309 | Lost (Howard: 6 assists) |
| Monday, Aug 10 | Malonga U2.5 ast + Juskaite U3.5 reb (Bet365) | +203 | Both legs cashed |
| Thursday, Aug 13 | No bet: the board graded below fair on every row | n/a | No ticket |
| Friday, Aug 14 | Ogunbowale U16.5 pts + Hiedeman U22.5 pts + reb + ast (Bet365) | 4.77 decimal | Lost (Ogunbowale: 20 points) |
| Sunday, Aug 16 | Canada U3.5 reb + Brochant U1.5 threes (DraftKings) | 3.13 decimal | Cashed as a single at -160 (Canada did not play, leg voided; Brochant: 0 threes) |
| Monday, Aug 17 | Zandalasini U2.5 reb + Ogunbowale U3.5 ast (Bet365) | 3.21 decimal | Both legs cashed |
| Wednesday, Aug 19 | Zandalasini U2.5 ast + Austin U10.5 reb (Bet365) | +197 | Lost (Zandalasini: 3 assists) |
| Tuesday, Aug 25 | Bueckers U6.5 ast + Onyenwere U2.5 reb (DraftKings) | 4.10 decimal | Lost (Bueckers: 11 assists) |
| Wednesday, Aug 26 | Edwards O5.5 reb + Rice U4.5 reb (Bet365) | 4.07 decimal | Lost (Edwards: 5 rebounds) |
| Friday, Aug 28 | Gray U2.5 ast + Brink U5.5 reb + Harrison U7.5 reb (Hard Rock) | +620 | Lost (Gray: 3 assists) |
| Sunday, Aug 30 | Shepard U15.5 pts + Atkins U2.5 reb + Valkyries 1H ML (Hard Rock) | 5.61 decimal | Lost (Shepard: 17 points) |
| Thursday, Sept 17 | Amoore U3.5 ast + A. Thomas U8.5 reb (Caesars) | +275 | Lost (Amoore: 5 assists) |
| Monday, Sept 21 | Reese U16.5 pts + Shepard U13.5 pts (DraftKings) | +253 | Lost (Reese: 18 points; Shepard: 17 points) |
| Sunday, Sept 27 | Amoore U3.5 ast + Charles U6.5 pts (Bet365) | +349 | Tips 7:00 & 9:00 PM ET |
Two housekeeping notes on the table. The hole between Aug. 30 and Sept. 17 is the FIBA Women's World Cup break, and the hole between Sept. 21 and tonight is three regular-season days this column did not publish and two days with no games before Game 1. The record is 5-13, the streak is seven, and Monday both legs missed: Angel Reese scored 18 on 14 shots in 34 minutes and Jessica Shepard scored 17 in 36 minutes with seven free throws. Both were points unders on players who played 34 and 36 minutes, and points unders on full-minutes players lose to the free-throw line. That is the pattern I am carrying into tonight, and it is why both of tonight's legs are the opposite shape: a starter who gets pulled, and a reserve who stays a reserve. Minutes are the bet, not the shooting.
The Parlay Builder is where this gets checked before it gets bet: load both legs, and if the combined price you are offered has drifted below the +247 fair, the ticket is a pass. These lines were captured at 10:02 AM ET and the Amoore leg tips at 7:00 PM ET, which is a long window for the widest number on the board to sit still.
Every leg here started as a row on the OddsShopper WNBA player props screen, an odds comparison that de-vigs every posted price across the major books, and the same screen that caught Sunday's 12 rows past fair and flagged the Amoore assists number as the widest one on a four-game playoff board. The Parlay Builder then prices the two legs together against the +247 fair. Code WNBAPOD20 takes 20% off your first payment of OS Pro or OS Core.
The Tickets I Left On The Table
The row I wanted is Jonquel Jones under 2.5 assists at +110 against a fair of -116, 12.7%, the third-widest number on the board and the widest in the Liberty-Lynx game. Her log makes the case on its own: under in 24 of 42, under in 8 of her last 10, and 0 assists in 30 minutes at Minnesota on Sept. 18 in the last regular-season meeting. Two things keep it off. She twisted her left ankle Wednesday against the Dream, did not return, and is questionable for Game 1; she said Saturday she feels good, which is encouraging and is not a lineup card. The game also tips at 2:00 PM ET, first of the day, about an hour after this column posts. If you are reading before the tip and she is in Chris DeMarco's starting five, the three-leg Bet365 version with her attached pays about +843 against a fair near +546, and the two-leg Amoore-Jones version pays about +383 against +264. Neither is the ticket, because a leg I cannot confirm is a leg I do not print. The ledger already has one of those: Aug. 16, when Jordin Canada sat and the slip cashed as a Brochant single at -160. The Charles leg is a different kind of unconfirmed, and the difference is the whole reason one is on the ticket and one is not. Jones is a listed questionable with a binary answer that arrives on a lineup card. Charles is a healthy reserve on a team with a clean report, behind a starting five that has been the same for two straight games. One is a coin flip on whether a player dresses. The other is a bet that a settled rotation stays settled, and that bet is the leg.
Shakira Austin under 2.5 assists at +115 against -119, 16.8%, is the same game as Amoore, so it was never a second leg. It is also the row where the screen's fair and the player's log disagree hardest. Austin has stayed under 2.5 in 17 of 40 this season and has handed out 5 in each of her last two games. A center who averages 2.7 assists in 29 minutes is not a 54% under at that number in a playoff game she is going to play 30 minutes of. Pass, whatever the consensus says, and that disagreement is exactly why Amoore's row is the Atlanta leg and Austin's is not.
Maddy Siegrist under 7.5 points at -115 against -128 is the trap on this board. Alanna Smith is out for Game 1, the Dallas frontcourt just got thinner, and Siegrist has scored 9, 12, 3, 9 and 11 in her last five. A points under on the player whose minutes just went up is how a 5% edge on a screen becomes a loss on the floor, and I would rather write it here than learn it at 11:30 PM ET.
Michaela Onyenwere under 2.5 rebounds at +100 against -115 is the third-best number in the Mystics game and a legitimate single as a positive-EV play: under in 20 of 36 on the season and in 9 of her last 10. One leg per game, and Amoore's row is wider. If you want one more thing off this board on its own, that is the one, and Amoore's assists under is the one ahead of it.
How To Size It
A 28.9% ticket at +349 prices to a full-Kelly stake of about 8.5% of bankroll, and a quarter of that is about 2.1%, per standard bankroll management. On a $1,000 bankroll that is about $21. I am not betting $21 on this and neither should you. Quarter-Kelly assumes the fair price is right, and a 17.8% edge on a shortened guard's assist prop is the market being slow to a Game 1 rotation, not a hole in the world. Cut it in half again. One percent, ten dollars on a thousand, is the right number for a ticket whose fair price is a consensus of books that could all share the same blind spot.
The single-leg question is fair to ask. Per dollar of risk, Amoore alone at +130 is the better bet: a 51% proposition paying better than even money, no second leg, no second way to lose. The parlay bolts on a 56% leg at a short price, which adds real expected value this time and roughly doubles the variance. This is a parlay column, and I write the ticket the board gives me. If you only want the best bet per dollar on Sunday's board, it is Amoore under 3.5 on her own at Bet365, with Onyenwere's rebounds under behind it.
- The Amoore leg tips at 7:00 PM ET in Atlanta and the Charles leg at 9:00 PM ET in San Francisco. After 7:00, the ticket is gone.
- Check the Mystics' inactives before the tip. If Amoore is out, there is no ticket.
- Golden State's starting five posts after the Amoore leg has tipped, so the ticket goes in on the rotation as it stands. If you are shopping Charles as a single at 9:00, check the five first: if Williams, Zandalasini or Thornton is a late scratch, the leg is the starter version of her and the case is gone.
- Watch the Valkyries' spread. The Charles leg wants a game, not a rout.
FAQ
Why not pair Amoore and Austin, the two widest rows on the board, on one slip?
Same game, so one leg, and the two unders are correlated besides: both ride the same Mystics possessions ending in Dream steals, and a book prices a same-game combination off the correlation it models, not the one the screen multiplies. Pick one. Amoore's row is wider and her log agrees with it.
What happens to this ticket if Washington is down 20 at halftime?
Less than you would think. A rout is the scenario where Amoore keeps her 23 minutes and some of them come after the game is decided, and the one time that happened against Atlanta, the 109-77 game in June, she handed out one assist. Across the season she has played 17 games decided by 10 or more points and stayed under 3.5 in 12 of them, which is a better rate than her overall 23 of 40. A blowout is bad for the Mystics and neutral to good for the leg. The version of the night that beats it is a close game where the coach rides the point guard for 30 minutes, and that has not happened against this opponent in three tries.
Should I add Jonquel Jones if she plays?
Only before 2:00 PM ET, only if she starts, and only knowing the math above: the three-leg version pays about +843 against a fair near +546. Once the Liberty-Lynx game tips, the leg is gone and the two-leg ticket is the only one left. I would not add her. A questionable ankle in a Game 1 is a minutes question the coach answers in the second quarter, not before it, and the whole point of tonight's ticket is that I already know what the minutes look like.
The Bottom Line
A win tonight makes the ledger 6-13 and ends the streak at seven; a loss makes it 5-14 and eight, and the column prints either. What decides it is not whether Georgia Amoore or Kaila Charles plays well. It is whether Sydney Johnson shortens the point guard the way Washington did in both wins over Atlanta, and whether Natalie Nakase keeps the full starting five on the floor long enough that Charles takes five shots instead of nine. Game 1 of a best-of-three is when coaches trust the fewest people, and both legs are bets on that. The Dream tip at 7:00 PM ET, these prices were captured at 10:02 AM ET, and Bet365 has to still show +130 on the Amoore under and -105 on the Charles under for the ticket to exist. If it does, fire it at the size above, which is small on purpose. If either number has moved past fair, or if either starting five looks different from the one in this column, close the app.
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