Updated September 15, 2026 · 8 min read · by Jake Hari
Brock Bowers and Tua Tagovailoa never took a snap in NFL Week 1, and Kalshi paid their contracts anyway: 84 cents on Bowers to gain 25 or more receiving yards, 78 cents on Tua to throw for 150 or more. Neither went to zero.
That is the answer to the question this page asked on Sunday morning, and it cost money to be on the wrong side of it. People who bought the No side on Tua for about 36 cents, on the logic that a quarterback who does not play cannot throw for 150 yards, were paid 22 cents. They lost 14 cents a contract on a bet that looked like a certainty.
The rest of the board is now graded. We handed the busiest player prop in each of the 14 Week 1 games to seven AI models with the prices hidden, 41 contracts in all. Ten settled Yes. The models landed closer to the truth than the market's price on 24 of the 41, the market was closer on 16, and one was a tie. The biggest single win was Josh Allen scoring twice at Houston, a contract the market priced at 7.5 cents and the models priced at 19%. Allen scored twice.
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| Contract | Paid | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Bowers 25+ | 84¢ | Brock Bowers was ruled out and never played; Kalshi settled his 25-yard contract at 84 cents, not No. |
| Tua 150+ | 78¢ | Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out Friday; his 150-yard contract settled at 78 cents. The No side collected 22. |
| Allen 2+ TD | 100¢ | Priced 7.5 cents Sunday morning against the models' 19%; Josh Allen scored twice and it paid $1. |
Settlement values from Kalshi's market records, saved September 15; the full 41-contract board is next.
The Graded Board: All 41 Contracts
The price column is Kalshi's midpoint at 5:22 a.m. ET on Sunday, September 13, the snapshot the models were scored against. Panel is the median of the seven models. Closer is whichever of the two ended up nearer the result.
| Contract | Price Sunday morning | Panel | Settled | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. 1+ TD (NYG) | 10.5¢ | 10% | No | Panel |
| Odell Beckham Jr. 2+ TDs (NYG) | 0.5¢ | 1% | No | Market |
| Joe Burrow 1+ TD (CIN) | 10.5¢ | 8% | No | Panel |
| Joe Burrow 2+ TDs (CIN) | 0.5¢ | 1% | No | Market |
| Michael Mayer 1+ TD (LV) | 26.5¢ | 23% | No | Panel |
| Michael Mayer 2+ TDs (LV) | 2¢ | 3% | No | Market |
| Brian Robinson 1+ TD (ATL) | 14.5¢ | 14% | No | Panel |
| Brian Robinson 2+ TDs (ATL) | 1.5¢ | 2% | No | Market |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. 1+ TD (JAX) | 32.5¢ | 32% | No | Panel |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. 2+ TDs (JAX) | 5.5¢ | 6% | No | Market |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. 3+ TDs (JAX) | 1.5¢ | 1% | No | Panel |
| Josh Allen 1+ TD (BUF) | 39.5¢ | 45% | Yes | Panel |
| Josh Allen 2+ TDs (BUF) | 7.5¢ | 19% | Yes | Panel |
| Caleb Williams 1+ TD (CHI) | 14.5¢ | 19% | Yes | Panel |
| Caleb Williams 2+ TDs (CHI) | 1.5¢ | 2% | Yes | Panel |
| Lamar Jackson 1+ TD (BAL) | 24.5¢ | 25% | Yes | Panel |
| Lamar Jackson 2+ TDs (BAL) | 3.5¢ | 5% | No | Market |
| Lamar Jackson 3+ TDs (BAL) | 0.5¢ | 1% | No | Market |
| Bo Nix 1+ TD (DEN) | 13.5¢ | 22% | No | Market |
| Bo Nix 2+ TDs (DEN) | 1¢ | 4% | No | Market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 1+ TD (DET) | 67.5¢ | 61% | Yes | Market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ TDs (DET) | 28.5¢ | 28% | Yes | Market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ TDs (DET) | 6.5¢ | 11% | No | Market |
| Justin Jefferson 1+ TD (MIN) | 34.5¢ | 24% | Yes | Market |
| Justin Jefferson 2+ TDs (MIN) | 4.5¢ | 4% | Yes | Market |
| Justin Jefferson 3+ TDs (MIN) | 1.5¢ | 1% | No | Panel |
| Daniel Bellinger 1+ TD (TEN) | 8.5¢ | 9% | No | Market |
| Saquon Barkley 1+ TD (PHI) | 50.5¢ | 49% | No | Panel |
| Saquon Barkley 2+ TDs (PHI) | 14.5¢ | 11% | No | Panel |
| Saquon Barkley 3+ TDs (PHI) | 2¢ | 2% | No | Tie |
| Omarion Hampton 40+ rush yds (LAC) | 84¢ | 77% | Yes | Market |
| Omarion Hampton 50+ rush yds (LAC) | 71¢ | 64% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 60+ rush yds (LAC) | 60.5¢ | 52% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 70+ rush yds (LAC) | 49.5¢ | 40% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 80+ rush yds (LAC) | 32.5¢ | 30% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 90+ rush yds (LAC) | 26¢ | 21% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 100+ rush yds (LAC) | 18.5¢ | 14% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 110+ rush yds (LAC) | 14¢ | 9% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 120+ rush yds (LAC) | 8.5¢ | 6% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 130+ rush yds (LAC) | 3.5¢ | 3% | No | Panel |
| Omarion Hampton 140+ rush yds (LAC) | 3¢ | 2% | No | Panel |
Twenty-one of those 41 lines had the market and the models within two points of each other on Sunday morning, so the record above mostly comes down to the 17 lines where they genuinely disagreed by three points or more. The models had the better side on 11 of those 17. Of the seven models, Kimi beat the market's price most often, on 26 of the 41 lines.
Kalshi Paid Two Players Who Never Played
Bowers had a meniscus trim and the Raiders ruled him out. Tagovailoa hurt his oblique in Thursday practice and NFL.com reported he was out at Pittsburgh with Cooper Rush starting. Both contracts kept trading after the news, and almost all the money in them arrived after everyone knew the player would not appear: Tua's 150-yard contract went from 1,692 contracts open before the Friday out stamp to 71,061, and Bowers's 25-yard contract went from 109 to 57,630.
Here is what those two settled for.
| Contract | Price Sunday morning | Kalshi settled at | What the No side got back |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowers 25+ receiving yards vs MIA | 74¢ bid, 83¢ ask | 84¢ | 16¢ |
| Tua 150+ passing yards at PIT | 64¢ bid, 66¢ ask | 78¢ | 22¢ |
Kalshi did not mark either one down to zero and did not resolve either one Yes. It settled both at a price, the fair value of the contract before the game, which is what this clause in the rules said it would do:
"The following market refers to Tua Tagovailoa in the Atlanta vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 13, 2026. If Tua Tagovailoa is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Tua Tagovailoa takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on passing yards recorded."
The clause is written for a player who is active and never plays, and says nothing about one ruled out before kickoff. The people buying No were betting on the gap: zero passing yards means No, and No pays a dollar. Kalshi read the clause the other way and extended it to a ruled-out player.
It had done this before. In Week 1 of the 2025 season, InGame reported that Bears running back Roschon Johnson "was a late scratch," that Kalshi kept his touchdown market up, and that "the bet was settled, as the rules outlined, at what was considered fair market price before his inactivity was announced, rather than as a 'no.' Kalshi determined this price to be 19 cents."
The market mostly had this right and the No buyers did not. On Sunday morning Tua's contract traded at 64 to 66 cents, close to the 78 it settled at and nowhere near the zero a flat No would have produced. Of the 267 trades after Tua was ruled out, 235 were purchases of No at roughly 36 cents, including single blocks of 13,513 and 13,293 contracts. Every one of those came back 22 cents.
The practical rule for the rest of the season: on Kalshi, a player being ruled out does not turn his contract into a free dollar. It freezes the contract near whatever it was worth before the news. Nothing here is financial advice.
Where The Models Beat The Market
Josh Allen, two or more touchdowns at Houston, settled Yes. This was the widest disagreement on the board and the models won it outright. The market said 7.5 cents; the seven models said 19%, every one of them at 17 or above, working off a 2025 log in which Allen scored at least twice in 5 of 17 games. At the 8-cent ask, $10 came back about $125 before fees. His one-touchdown line settled Yes too, 39.5 cents against a 45% call.
Caleb Williams scored twice against Carolina. The models had him at 19% to score at all against the market's 14.5 cents, and both his rungs settled Yes.
Omarion Hampton's rushing ladder, 10 of 11 rungs. The models sat under the market on every rung of the ladder, and that was right almost all the way up: Hampton cleared 40 yards and did not clear 50. The one rung the market won was the bottom one, where its 84 cents beat a 77% call on a Yes.
Saquon Barkley did not score. The market had him at 50.5 cents, a coin flip, and the models shaded slightly under at 49%.
Where The Market Beat The Models
Justin Jefferson scored twice against Green Bay. This was the models' worst line. They read Minnesota's 18 team passing touchdowns in 2025 as evidence that Jefferson's scoring rate was structurally low and priced him at 24% against the market's 34.5 cents. He scored twice, so both of the lines they marked down settled Yes.
Bo Nix did not score Monday night. The models liked his rushing-touchdown log and said 22%; the market said 13.5 cents and treated him as a quarterback who rarely runs it in. Kansas City beat Denver and Nix stayed out of the end zone.
Jahmyr Gibbs scored twice, not three times. The market had all three Gibbs rungs closer. Its 67.5 cents on him scoring at all beat a 61% call, and its 6.5 cents on three touchdowns beat an 11% call that leaned on the three 3-touchdown games in his 2025 season.
Here is every model's number on the nine lines where the split was widest or the story sat, with how each one settled:
| Contract | ChatGPT | Gemini | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Grok | Kimi | Median | Kalshi | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen 2+ TDs (BUF) | 18% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 27% | 23% | 22% | 19% | 7.5¢ | Yes |
| Justin Jefferson 1+ TD (MIN) | 25% | 24% | 22% | 28% | 22% | 26% | 24% | 24% | 34.5¢ | Yes |
| Bo Nix 1+ TD (DEN) | 22% | 24% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 21% | 20% | 22% | 13.5¢ | No |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 1+ TD (DET) | 59% | 59% | 58% | 61% | 62% | 61% | 62% | 61% | 67.5¢ | Yes |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ TDs (DET) | 10% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 6.5¢ | No |
| Michael Mayer 1+ TD (LV) | 23% | 23% | 19% | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 26.5¢ | No |
| Omarion Hampton 40+ rush yds (LAC) | 77% | 77% | 75% | 78% | 75% | 77% | 80% | 77% | 84¢ | Yes |
| Omarion Hampton 70+ rush yds (LAC) | 38% | 37% | 40% | 42% | 34% | 46% | 43% | 40% | 49.5¢ | No |
| Omarion Hampton 100+ rush yds (LAC) | 11% | 10% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 18.5¢ | No |
Every call above went into our public ledger before kickoff, and the full graded scoreboard tracks how each model has done across every settled market.
What Week 1 Says About Week 2
Two things carried over. The first is the settlement rule, now demonstrated twice: a contract on a player who is ruled out before kickoff pays out near its pre-news price, so the profit in an injury scratch is in selling into the panic, not in buying the "sure" No afterward. The second is where the market was weakest. It underpriced quarterbacks scoring themselves twice, the Allen and Williams lines, and it overpriced a thin rookie rushing ladder all the way up. Both of those are shapes that repeat every week.
New to Kalshi event markets? Start with how NFL contracts work on Kalshi, because every number on this page settled on rules text. The Bowers and Tua markets are covered in more detail on our Raiders-Dolphins props page and Tua Tagovailoa's Falcons job, and the game-level lines are on the AI NFL predictions board.
Settlements read from Kalshi on September 15, 2026. Prices shown are from the September 13, 2026, 5:22 a.m. ET snapshot the models were scored against.
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