Kalshi Weather Markets: The Live Hub
Last updated: July 27, 2026, 2:40 PM ET. Midday edition. This page is rebuilt several times per day at this same address.
Kalshi weather markets are contracts on tomorrow's thermometer, and unlike a ballgame, the answer arrives on a schedule. Every afternoon a set of daily highs gets locked in; every pre-dawn hour a set of overnight lows does the same. At midday, the eastern and central cities are heading into the window where their highs get set, while the western cities still have most of their day ahead of them. That clock, not any prediction, is what this page tracks.
One thing before anything else: Stokastic trades these markets and holds positions in them. Where a settled position is described below, we were the seller. Nothing on this page is a pick, a play or a recommendation. We publish the market and our settled results; we do not publish our live orders. The single most expensive line on our ledger is a loss from Friday, and we will get to it, because it explains this strategy better than the twenty wins do.
In Summary
- What This Is: the standing hub for Kalshi temperature markets, covering what the contracts are, the live weather picture, and a public log of a trading test we have not proven.
- Right Now (Midday): highs are climbing toward their peak. We follow 19 cities on the high-temperature book (Monday's highs) and 16 on the low-temperature book (Tuesday's lows).
- The Record: 20-1 on 21 filled positions, and still down $2.30. Both of those facts belong in the same sentence.
- The Low-Temp Book: we have not traded it live yet. Every settled position on the log is a high-temp trade.
- Is It Working? Across 24 settled contracts the realized rate sits almost exactly on what the market implied. The sample is far too small to say anything either way.
What These Markets Are
Kalshi weather contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives traded on a designated contract market. Each one asks a yes-or-no question, something like "will the high temperature in Austin land between 100 and 101 degrees on this date," and settles to $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if it is no. You can take either side. If you are new to how these exchanges price a yes-or-no question, start with our explainer on how prediction markets work and the companion piece on reading Kalshi's prices as probabilities.
Two structural details matter more than anything else. First, a city's temperature bands form a ladder that is really a probability distribution; reading one band in isolation misses the picture. Second, every contract settles against a single named weather station, and it is not always the airport you would guess. Houston settles on Hobby, not Bush Intercontinental. The number in your weather app is a city-wide blend; the number that settles the contract comes from one thermometer.
Right Now: The Midday Picture
The live state of play: highs are climbing toward their peak. The high-temperature book is trading on Monday's highs. The low-temperature book is already dated Tuesday, because a low-temp contract carries the date of the morning the low is observed, which means tonight's overnight low settles tomorrow's ticker.
Here is the publicly observed picture, as of this update, across every city we follow:
| City | High so far Monday (°F) | Low so far today (°F) |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 85 | 77 |
| Austin | 92 | 74 |
| Boston | 76 | 59 |
| Chicago | 88 | 68 |
| Dallas | 96 | 80 |
| Denver | 85 | 76 |
| Houston | 90 | 78 |
| Las Vegas | 102 | — |
| Miami | 90 | 78 |
| Minneapolis | 96 | 82 |
| New Orleans | 92 | 79 |
| New York | 83 | 70 |
| Oklahoma City | 98 | 71 |
| Philadelphia | 86 | 70 |
| Phoenix | 103 | 94 |
| San Antonio | 89 | — |
| San Francisco | 65 | — |
| Seattle | 68 | 59 |
| Washington, DC | 87 | 72 |
The dashes are cities the low-temperature book does not cover; it runs 16 cities to the high book's 19. These are the cities we follow, full stop. Which of them we act on, and at what price, is not published here, for reasons covered below.
The row worth sitting with is San Francisco at 65. On the East Coast, an 87 in Washington at midday means the day's question is close to answered. San Francisco's afternoon has barely started, so its 65 says very little about where the day ends. Same table, two completely different amounts of information, which is the next point.
The Two Clocks
A daily high is set in mid-afternoon, and the running maximum can only rise toward it. An overnight low is set pre-dawn, and the running minimum can only fall. So a partial observation is a floor on the high book and a ceiling on the low book, and the two books resolve at opposite ends of the day. Las Vegas has already touched 102 today; whatever happens next, Monday's high there settles at 102 or above. Most people have never thought about a temperature as a number that can only move one direction, and it is the most useful idea on this page.
How much is left to run also depends heavily on climate. A morning temperature tells you very little about a daily high, but by mid-afternoon the question is largely settled, and humid cities barely move from their midday number while dry ones can still swing hard. The board sits exactly there at this hour: Miami is more or less done writing its answer, Phoenix is not.
The Risk Shape: One Loss Erases Dozens Of Wins
This is the section we repeat in every edition, because a reader who copies this style of trade without understanding the asymmetry is the failure mode we care most about.
Selling an unlikely outcome collects a small premium and risks most of a dollar. Roughly speaking, one loss erases the premiums from thirty or forty wins. That arithmetic, not the hit rate, is what makes position sizing the whole game. It also means a red day that wipes out a green stretch is the shape of the strategy working as designed, not a malfunction. Keep that number in mind when you read the record below; it will show up in the data.
Execution is the other half. In a market where the whole question is worth a few cents, crossing the spread to get filled instantly can cost more than the view is worth. An instant fill usually means you paid for it. We rest limit orders and wait, which also keeps us on the better side of Kalshi's maker-taker fee structure. And because one air mass can cover fifteen cities at once, positions in fifteen cities are not fifteen independent bets; spreading across climate types and both directions is the only real protection.
What Actually Settled
The most recent settled positions on the log, newest first — eight of the 21 filled positions to date. Friday's loss predates this detail window; it gets its full accounting in the record below. All rows are high-temperature trades in which we sold the tail (bought NO):
| Date | City | Band | Entry | Collateral | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26 | Las Vegas | ≤108 | NO at 98¢ | $19.60 | band did not hit | +$0.39 |
| Jul 26 | Houston | ≤93 | NO at 97¢ | $19.40 | band did not hit | +$0.59 |
| Jul 26 | Atlanta | 86–87 | NO at 97¢ | $19.40 | band did not hit | +$0.59 |
| Jul 26 | Oklahoma City | 104–105 | NO at 95¢ | $19.00 | band did not hit | +$0.98 |
| Jul 26 | Austin | 100–101 | NO at 94¢ | $18.80 | band did not hit | +$1.18 |
| Jul 26 | Seattle | 76–77 | NO at 95¢ | $19.00 | band did not hit | +$0.98 |
| Jul 25 | Phoenix | 113–114 | NO at 97¢ | $19.40 | band did not hit | +$0.59 |
| Jul 25 | Atlanta | ≥92 | NO at 98¢ | $19.60 | band did not hit | +$0.39 |
Every row here landed, and not one of them is impressive in dollar terms, which is the point.
A Worked Example: The Las Vegas Row
Walk through the Las Vegas row and you have the whole risk shape in one line. The market asked whether Sunday's high in Las Vegas would stay at or under 108 degrees; we sold the tail, meaning we bought NO at 98 cents. We put $19.60 of collateral behind 20 contracts to earn 39 cents when the band missed. Many small premiums, each one carrying the full weight of the collateral if the band ever hits. The Austin position was the best payer of the weekend at $1.18, and even that is a rounding error next to what one miss costs.
On the low-temperature book: nothing. We have not traded it live yet, so it has no results, good or bad. When that changes, its settlements will appear here on their own terms; the high-temp record does not transfer across.
The Record
The headline: 20-1 on 21 filled positions, $2.30 in the red. The counting rule matters: wins and losses count filled positions only. Three resting orders never filled over this stretch; they are reported as exactly that, never as wins.
| Date | W | L | P&L | Never filled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24 | 7 | 1 | −$10.19 | 1 |
| Jul 25 | 7 | 0 | +$3.18 | 1 |
| Jul 26 | 6 | 0 | +$4.71 | 1 |
July 24 is the loss we promised at the top, and it is the most instructive line on the ledger. Seven wins, one loss, and the day still finished down $10.19, because the single band that hit cost more than every premium collected that day combined. The thirty-to-forty-wins arithmetic from the risk-shape section showed up in real money on day one of the log. Two clean days since have clawed back most of it, and the log still sits at −$2.30. A 20-1 record that is underwater is not a paradox. In this structure, it is Tuesday.
Is This Working? An Honest Read
Across 24 settled contracts, the market implied these outcomes would hit 3.7% of the time, and they hit 4.2%. (The calibration sample is counted in settled trade slots, which is why its 24 runs slightly wider than the ledger's 21 filled positions.) But the 95% confidence interval around that realized rate runs from 0.7% to 20.2%, and it contains the implied rate, so the result is not statistically significant in either direction. The edge is not yet established. It takes on the order of a thousand settled contracts to resolve a difference this small, and that is the number this test should be judged on, never a night's P&L.
It is also why we do not call this a track record. This is a public log of a test that has not proven itself, published wins and losses alike, and it will take months of settlements before it deserves a stronger word.
What We Publish, And What We Don't
We publish the public weather picture, the shape of the market, every settled position in full, the aggregate record, and the calibration read with its caveats. We do not publish live resting orders, our city, band or price, until they settle. We are makers; printing a resting order before it fills would invite anyone to undercut it by a cent and take the queue spot we were waiting for. We also keep our selection thresholds and margin numbers to ourselves. The principle is simple: publish the market, not the book. You should leave this page understanding how these markets work, not holding a copy of our order sheet.
That also means there are no picks here, by design. If what you actually want is recommendations with reasoning attached, that is a different page: our free expert picks hub is where OddsShopper's cappers publish theirs. Those picks live on the sportsbook side of the shop, where tools like the odds screen and line shopping comparisons actually apply. Weather markets are not on those screens, and we are not going to pretend they are.
Kalshi Weather Markets FAQ
How Do Kalshi Weather Markets Settle?
Each contract settles to $1 or $0 against a single named weather station, the one written into the market rules, not a city-wide average. High-temperature contracts resolve off the day's maximum, which is set by mid-afternoon; low-temperature contracts resolve off the overnight minimum and carry the date of the morning the low is observed.
Can You Trade Both Sides Of A Temperature Band?
Yes. Every band has a YES and a NO, and you can take either one. The bands for a city form a ladder that works like a probability distribution, so the price of one band only makes full sense next to its neighbors.
Is There Any Inside Information In Weather Markets?
No. There is no injury report and no locker-room leak; every participant is reading the same publicly funded forecast, so a careful newcomer starts on far more even footing here than in sports markets. The risk arithmetic above still applies in full.
Keep Reading: The Kalshi Library
The hub is the live layer; the durable explainers live in the pieces around it.
- How to bet sports on Kalshi — the getting-started guide to the exchange itself
- Kalshi's fees, explained — why maker vs. taker is the first real decision you make
- How to read Kalshi odds — prices as probabilities, the skill every band ladder demands
- Prediction market strategies on Kalshi — the broader strategy landscape beyond weather
- Kalshi liquidity and its best markets — what thin order books do to your fills
- Are prediction markets legal? — the regulatory picture, state by state
- Kalshi vs. Polymarket — how the two big exchanges differ
The Clock Resets At Midnight
By this evening, every eastern high will be written and the low book takes over; by pre-dawn Tuesday, those tickers settle and the whole cycle starts again. That rhythm is what makes weather the cleanest classroom in prediction markets: the information is public, the physics are the physics, and nobody is trading on a leak. What a newcomer can get wrong is the arithmetic, one loss against forty wins, and the discipline of judging a strategy on a thousand settlements instead of a good weekend. This page will keep both numbers in front of you, every edition.
Disclosure. Stokastic trades these markets and holds positions in them; where a settled position is described above, we were the seller. Kalshi weather contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives traded on a designated contract market, not sportsbook wagers, and they can lose their full value. 18+. Available where Kalshi operates. Risk of loss is real and, on the side we trade, individually large. This is an open research log of a strategy we have not yet proven. Nothing here is trading advice.
