Last updated: August 18, 2026, 10:30 PM ET. Night edition. This page is rebuilt several times per day at this same address.
Kalshi weather markets are contracts on the thermometer, and unlike a ballgame, the answer arrives on a schedule. By night, the schedule has run out: this edition catches the board at 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, August 18, with every high on the board final, tomorrow's high-temperature markets already open across all 20 cities with nothing written on them yet, and tonight's cooling air working on the only live number left. The evening edition promised the board would flip its emphasis entirely by tonight, and it has. It also called one Pacific city finished a few hours too early, and the degrees it missed are the best lesson of the day. Both are in the table below. (Stokastic's PM desk trades these markets and holds positions in them — full disclosure at the bottom of the page — so this is the market, not our book.)
The Quick Answer
Kalshi weather markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts on daily high and low temperatures in specific cities: each settles to $1 or $0 against one named weather station, and the price works like a probability, so a 12-cent contract is the market pricing that band at about 12%. As of 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, August 18, today's high board is closed everywhere: Phoenix finished at 111.2, just short of yesterday's 112, Oklahoma City hit 108, Dallas caught yesterday's 104 exactly, and Seattle, which the evening edition had at 74 and treated as finished, kept climbing to 78.8. We trade these markets ourselves, which is exactly why nothing here is a pick. The full city-by-city board, the two clocks that decide when each temperature question is finished, and the risk arithmetic every newcomer gets wrong are all below.
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What These Markets Are
Kalshi weather contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives traded on a designated contract market. Each one asks a yes-or-no question, something like "will the high temperature in a named city land between 88 and 89 degrees on a given date," and settles to $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if it is no. You can take either side. If you are new to how these exchanges price a yes-or-no question, start with our explainer on how prediction markets work and the companion piece on reading Kalshi's prices as probabilities.
Two structural details matter more than anything else. First, a city's temperature bands form a ladder that is really a probability distribution; reading one band in isolation misses the picture. Picture an illustrative five-band ladder priced at 2 cents, 11 cents, 34 cents, 38 cents and 12 cents, with the last 3 cents scattered across the far tails: those prices read as roughly 2%, 11%, 34%, 38% and 12% chances, and together they have to account for essentially the whole distribution. A 30-cent band is the market calling that outcome about a 30% shot, and what a price does and does not tell you is worth ten minutes before your first trade. Second, every contract settles against a single named weather station, and it is not always the airport you would guess. Houston settles on Hobby, not Bush Intercontinental. The number in your weather app is a city-wide blend; the number that settles the contract comes from one thermometer.
Right Now: The Night Picture
The state of play at this edition's stamp: the day is over. At 10:30 PM Eastern even the Pacific rows are hours past their peak window, so every number in the middle column is final and today's high contracts are waiting on nothing but paperwork. The low book runs the opposite way. This morning's minimums settled before dawn and sit unchanged in the right-hand column, while tonight's running minimum starts from the evening's leftover warmth and can only fall from here. Because a low-temperature contract carries the date of the morning the low is observed, the number being set right now is Wednesday's ticker.
Here is the publicly observed picture, as of 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, August 18, across every city we follow (values rounded for display):
| City | High today (°F, final) | Low this morning (°F, set) |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 92 | 73 |
| Austin | 101 | 72 |
| Boston | 75 | 66 |
| Chicago | 80.1 | 66 |
| Dallas | 104 | 82 |
| Denver | 87.1 | 64 |
| Houston | 95 | 78 |
| Las Vegas | 109 | 84.2 |
| Los Angeles | 81 | 66.2 |
| Miami | 99 | 82 |
| Minneapolis | 83 | 65 |
| New Orleans | 95 | 79 |
| New York | 85 | 72 |
| Oklahoma City | 108 | 73 |
| Philadelphia | 87.1 | 76 |
| Phoenix | 111.2 | 89.6 |
| San Antonio | 99 | 78 |
| San Francisco | 68 | 55.4 |
| Seattle | 78.8 | 55.4 |
| Washington, DC | 87.8 | 75 |
Both books cover all 20 of these cities. These are the cities we follow, full stop; which of them we act on, and at what price, is not published here, for reasons covered below.
One item was still open at the evening stamp, the Pacific coast, and it turned into the day's best lesson in why a floor is never an answer until the clock actually runs out. At 6:30 PM ET Seattle read 74 and looked finished; it added almost five more degrees through its own late afternoon and closed at 78.8. San Francisco, for its part, stayed exactly where the evening left it, at 68. Everything else held its mark: Phoenix finished at 111.2, just eight-tenths of a degree short of yesterday's 112, with Las Vegas at 109, Oklahoma City at 108 and Dallas at 104 completing a board that put four cities at 104 or better. The full-day version of the desert-versus-coast contrast is now on the record too. Phoenix never fell below 89.6 this morning, while Seattle and San Francisco never rose above 78.8 and 68 all day, so the hottest city's floor cleared the coast's ceilings by double digits. That remains the single best illustration on this board of why a low book is not just a high book run backwards.
The Two Clocks
A daily high is set in mid-afternoon, and the running maximum can only rise toward it. An overnight low is set pre-dawn, and the running minimum can only fall. So a partial observation is a floor on the high book and a ceiling on the low book, and the two books resolve at opposite ends of the day. By night the two clocks have finished trading places. The high book's question is answered in every column, because a 10:30 PM Eastern stamp sits hours past the mid-afternoon window where daily highs are set, even on the west coast; today's floors and today's answers are now the same numbers, and the only high market with anything left to decide is tomorrow's, which has not produced its first observation. The low book is mid-sentence: tonight's running minimum began falling as the air cooled after sunset, a ceiling that can only drop until it bottoms out just before dawn. Most people have never thought about a temperature as a value that can only move one direction, and it is the most useful idea on this page.
Night is also when the day's one-way arithmetic can be read start to finish. Every number in the middle column spent the day as a floor that could only rise, and how far each one rose was a climate question as much as a clock question: dry, continental Oklahoma City and Dallas put up double-digit afternoons, humid Miami added five, and the Pacific rows wrote their last degrees hours after the East had stopped, Seattle's late 4.8 among them. The live half of the market has fully flipped: from here until dawn, the board's motion belongs to the low book, 20 running minimums falling toward Wednesday morning.
The Risk Shape: One Loss Erases A Stack Of Wins
The key risk in these markets is payoff asymmetry, and a reader who copies this style of trade without understanding it is the failure mode we care most about.
Selling an unlikely outcome collects a small premium and risks most of a dollar. Roughly speaking, one loss erases the premiums from about 11 wins. That arithmetic, not the hit rate, is what makes position sizing the whole game. It also means a red day that wipes out a green stretch is the shape of the strategy working as designed, not a malfunction. If you take one number away from this page, take that one, not anything in the temperature table.
A Worked Example: The Arithmetic Of A Long-Shot NO
The numbers here are illustrative, not a position of ours. Take a long-shot temperature band where NO trades at 90 cents, which is the market treating the band as about a 10% shot to hit. Buying NO costs 90 cents per contract and pays $1 if the band misses, so a win collects 10 cents; when the band hits, the same contract goes to zero and the loss is the full 90 cents. That is nine wins consumed by a single miss. Move the price two cents, to 92 cents, where the band is priced as an 8% shot, and the same trade collects 8 cents against a 92-cent loss, closer to 12 wins per miss. Real prices move between book-ends like these, which is why the ratio in the section above carries an "about" in front of it rather than a fixed number. A high win percentage cannot rescue that shape. Only position sizing can, which is why the sizing decision, not the forecast, is where this style of trading is actually won or lost.
Execution is the other half. In a market where the whole question is worth a few cents, crossing the spread to get filled instantly can cost more than the view is worth. An instant fill usually means you paid for it. We rest limit orders and wait, which also keeps us on the maker side of Kalshi's fee structure. And because one air mass can cover 15 cities at once, positions in 15 cities are not 15 independent bets; spreading across climate types and both directions is the only real protection, and adding more cities inside the same air mass is not diversification.
What We Publish, And What We Don't
We publish the public weather picture, the shape of the market, and the mechanics in the explainers linked across this page. We do not publish live resting orders, our city, band or price, our selection thresholds, or a results tally: we are makers, and printing a resting order before it fills would invite anyone to undercut it by a cent and take the queue spot we were waiting for. It's also too early to mean anything — weather has no kickoff or closing line, the price drifts continuously into the answer, and a strategy like this only means something judged on a large sample. You should leave this page understanding how these markets work, not holding a copy of our order sheet.
That also means there are no picks here, by design. If what you actually want is recommendations with reasoning attached, that is a different page: our free expert picks hub is where OddsShopper's cappers publish theirs. Those picks live on the sportsbook side of the shop, where tools like the live odds screen and line-shopping comparisons actually apply. Weather markets are not on those screens, and we are not going to pretend they are.
Keep Reading: The Kalshi Library
The hub is the live layer; the durable explainers live in the pieces around it.
The weather markets themselves:
- Can you bet on the weather?: the from-zero introduction to how these markets work
- What a Kalshi temperature contract actually is: the instrument itself, defined from scratch
- How to read a temperature band ladder: why one band's price only makes sense next to its neighbors
- Overnight lows and afternoon highs are two different games: the two clocks, in full
- The 24-hour clock of a weather market: when each book's question opens, tightens and closes
- The settlement station is not the city: the single most expensive detail newcomers miss
- The forecast is not the price: why a good forecast is not automatically a good trade
- When you sell a long shot, one loss costs many wins: the risk shape this page keeps repeating
- Making a price instead of paying one: the maker's side of a weather book
- Why "it's going to be 100 in Phoenix" is not a trade: the difference between a forecast and an edge
- How Kalshi's rain markets decide it rained: precipitation contracts and their own settlement quirks
- What a heat wave does to a weather book: correlation risk when one air mass covers the map
- The public data these markets settle on: where the settlement numbers actually come from
- The favorite-longshot bias is backwards on weather: and the tick size explains why
The exchange, its rules and practicalities:
- Is Kalshi legit?: what CFTC regulation actually means
- Is trading on Kalshi gambling?: the legal answer and the honest one
- An exchange is not a sportsbook: where the money actually goes
- Can you take both sides on Kalshi?: what holding YES and NO at once really does
- How to read Kalshi odds: prices as probabilities, the skill every ladder demands
- Kalshi and American odds: why the price is quoted in cents
- Kalshi's fees, explained: why maker vs. taker is the first real decision you make
- How does Kalshi make money?: the spread, the fees, and the part you do not see
- Order types on Kalshi, and when each one is wrong: the mechanics behind resting versus crossing
- When a contract actually closes: the timing that catches people out
- What happens when a market's outcome is disputed: the process after a messy settlement
- What actually happens when a contract settles: the mechanics after the question is answered
- Kalshi's rules, start to finish: how contracts are written, settled and changed
- What can you bet on Kalshi?: every category, and how often each one settles
- Is Kalshi peer to peer?: who is actually on the other side of your trade
- Kalshi and conflicts of interest: what the CFTC proposed
- Kalshi same-game parlays: what you can and cannot combine
- How to win on Kalshi: four measured ways people fool themselves
- Kalshi perpetual futures: leverage, funding, and what can liquidate you
- Can you lose more than you put in?: event contracts versus perps
- Is Kalshi FDIC insured?: where your money actually sits
- Kalshi's age requirement: how old you have to be, and why
- Does Kalshi have an app?: platforms, and what works where
- Kalshi deposits and withdrawals: minimums, timing, and what holds money up
- Kalshi customer service: how to get help, and what they can actually fix
- How to delete your Kalshi account: and what happens to your money when you do
- Kalshi vs. DraftKings: two different products that only look alike
- Kalshi vs. Robinhood: event contracts inside a brokerage app
Markets beyond the weather:
- Recession odds on Kalshi: 2026 vs 2027: why the two years are priced differently
- How the "number of rate cuts" market counts a cut: a settlement rule worth reading twice
- The next Fed rate cut, as the market prices it: the two Kalshi Fed markets, and how each settles
- The next jobs report: the payrolls print as an event contract, and what settles it
- Kalshi's Bank of Japan markets: how a rate decision settles
- Will there be a government shutdown?: what the market says
- Reading Kalshi's pardon market: who the contracts say gets a pardon
- Kalshi's impeachment markets: what the contract actually requires
- Will Trump resign? What the market prices: a low-probability contract, read carefully
- Trump approval rating markets: what the market is pricing
- Trump's Truth Social posts: the market on how often he posts
- Trump cabinet departures: who the market expects to leave next
- Will Trump be impeached?: what the market says right now
- Iowa Senate odds: the model verdict vs. the market: an AI panel graded against Kalshi's price
- Ohio Governor odds: the model verdict vs. the market: the same exercise, different race
- Georgia Senate odds: the model verdict vs. the market: the third race in the series
- How Bitcoin price contracts work on Kalshi: crypto through the event-contract lens
- Bitcoin's year-end price band: the same ladder logic applied to a crypto market
- What actually counts as an OpenAI IPO on Kalshi: definitions doing the heavy lifting
- The aliens market: who has to say it, and what the volume is really worth
- The Eagles backfield rushing market: a player-share question priced as a contract
- Bijan Robinson's record contract: what the market actually prices
- Nobody wants to bet on Russell Westbrook: a next-team board, read closely
- MLB home run leader: what the market prices: the season-long title, name by name
- Trading MLB home runs: Kalshi vs. Polymarket: the daily sports cousin of the temperature books
- Will there be an MLB lockout?: what the market says about 2027
- College Football Playoff odds on Kalshi: all 50 teams, scored
- Golf betting odds explained: outrights, top-10s and matchups
- Valorant betting odds: the markets and how they settle
- League of Legends betting odds: what the exchange lists
- What does "first inning runs" mean?: the F5 and RFI bets explained
- What does "over 2.5 goals" mean?: soccer totals, explained
- How often do soccer games end in a draw?: the base rate behind every three-way price
- Kalshi's GTA 6 markets: every contract and what it pays
- Who got eliminated from Big Brother?: what the market says
- How much is my Pokémon card worth?: how card prices are set
- How much gold is left?: what the numbers actually say
- Gold price prediction 2026: what the market prices for year-end
- SpaceX launches 2026: what the market prices for the year's flight count
- Pope Leo XIV markets: what prediction markets are pricing
- Coachella lineup odds: what the market prices on who headlines
- Who gets the next No. 1 album?: what the market has, name by name
- Billboard Hot 100 this week: what the market has at No. 1
- Most Emmy wins: every show on Kalshi's board, ranked
- Most viewed YouTube video 2026: can anything catch Baby Shark?
- TIME Person of the Decade: the market's board for the 2020s
- White Lotus Season 4 cast: who the market has joining, name by name
- Max Verstappen's next team: what the market prices, seat by seat
- Stranger Things Season 5: what the market says about the release
- Elder Scrolls 6 release date: what the market prices for 2027
- Rotten Tomatoes contracts: the score that settles is not the score you see
The wider prediction-market picture:
- How prediction markets work: the foundation piece for all of this
- Are prediction markets actually accurate?: what the research says about prices as forecasts
- A 30-cent contract does not mean 30%, or does it?: reading a price as a probability, carefully
- What actually moves a prediction market price: the flow behind the number
- Why liquidity decides whether you can trade: the thing thin books do not forgive, especially near the close
- A plain-English glossary of prediction market terms: the vocabulary, defined
- Using prediction markets to hedge real exposure: the practical use case beyond speculation
- Event contracts vs. futures and options: where these instruments sit in the derivatives family
- How election markets work: and what their prices mean
- Is betting on elections legal?: the federal rule and the state patchwork
- The same contract, priced differently on different exchanges: why venues disagree and what it means
- Kalshi vs. Polymarket: how the two big exchanges differ
- The best prediction market platforms, compared: who each venue is actually for
- Does prediction market arbitrage actually work?: cross-venue price gaps, real and illusory
- Are prediction markets legal?: the regulatory picture, state by state
- How Polymarket works: the other major venue, explained
- Is Polymarket legit?: the regulation question, answered for the other venue
- What it actually costs to trade on Polymarket: the fee structure on the other venue
- Polymarket vs. a sportsbook: two different products compared
- Polymarket deposits and withdrawals: which Polymarket you are actually using
- Polymarket customer service: getting help on the right Polymarket
- Polymarket's 5-minute crypto markets: what "time-weighted" actually means
- Polymarket and American odds: reading a price in cents
- Polymarket traders and copy-trading: what the leaderboard screenshots leave out
- How Novig works: peer-to-peer sports trading, and only sports
- Is Novig legit?: what the CFTC designation does and does not cover
- Novig customer service: how to get help, and what they can fix
- Novig deposits and withdrawals: what to expect getting money in and out
More on this: What A Kalshi Temperature Contract Actually Is · Can You Bet On The Weather? How Weather Markets Work · Alex Eala US Open Odds: The Crowd Buys, The Price Won't Move · Aliens Confirmed Odds: Kalshi Prices The Disclosure Bet · Baylor Vs Auburn Picks: Auburn Took Baylor's Best Back, And I'm Laying 7.5
The Night Turns The Page
What's live now belongs to tomorrow twice over: tonight's air is writing Wednesday's low ticker, and Wednesday's high board is open with nothing on it yet, the one moment in the daily cycle when a high contract is pure forecast. Weather is the cleanest classroom in prediction markets — the information is public, the physics are the physics, nobody's trading on a leak — so the edge, if there is one, comes from discipline: the arithmetic of one loss against a long stack of wins, and the patience to judge a strategy over a large sample instead of one good afternoon. Check back in the morning for the handoff.
Disclosure. Stokastic's prediction-markets desk trades these markets and holds positions in them; "we" on this page refers to that desk, not to the byline author individually. We have no affiliate or commercial relationship with Kalshi; we do carry sign-up offers for some other prediction-market and betting platforms, and any page comparing Kalshi to a platform that pays us discloses that relationship on the page. Kalshi weather contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives traded on a designated contract market, not sportsbook wagers, and they can lose their full value. 18+. Available where Kalshi operates. Risk of loss is real and, on the side we trade, individually large. This is an open research log of a strategy we have not yet proven. Nothing here is trading advice.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Prices are read live and move constantly. Event contracts are for adults 18+ where legal.
