Kalshi Weather Markets: The Live Hub

Last updated: August 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET. Evening edition. This page is rebuilt several times per day at this same address.

Kalshi weather markets are contracts on the thermometer, and unlike a ballgame, the answer arrives on a schedule. This evening edition catches the board at 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, August 9, at the fullest point of that schedule: the Eastern and Central running highs are effectively Sunday's answers, the Mountain and Pacific cities are finishing theirs, and the only truly open question left on the board is tonight's overnight lows. An evening board is the morning board inverted — a column of verdicts where the guesses used to be — and one row traveled further inside the day than any other city carrying both books. We will get to it.

One thing before anything else: Stokastic's prediction-markets desk trades these markets and holds positions in them. Nothing on this page is a pick, a play or a recommendation. We publish the market, not our book: no live orders, no results tally, just how these contracts actually work and where the board stands.

The Quick Answer

Kalshi weather markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts on daily high and low temperatures in specific cities: each settles to $1 or $0 against one named weather station, and the price works like a probability. At 6:30 PM ET the high book is largely finished — New York's 87.1, Philadelphia's 93 and Oklahoma City's 103 are effectively Sunday's answers, with only the Pacific coast and the desert still adding — while tonight's low markets, which carry Monday's date, are wide open with nothing banked yet. We trade these markets ourselves, which is exactly why nothing here is a pick. The full city-by-city board, the two clocks that decide when each temperature question is finished, and the risk arithmetic every newcomer gets wrong are all below.

What These Markets Are

Kalshi weather contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives traded on a designated contract market. Each one asks a yes-or-no question, something like "will the high temperature in a named city land between 88 and 89 degrees on a given date," and settles to $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if it is no. You can take either side. If you are new to how these exchanges price a yes-or-no question, start with our explainer on how prediction markets work and the companion piece on reading Kalshi's prices as probabilities.

Two structural details matter more than anything else. First, a city's temperature bands form a ladder that is really a probability distribution; reading one band in isolation misses the picture. Picture an illustrative five-band ladder priced at 2 cents, 11 cents, 34 cents, 38 cents and 12 cents, with the last 3 cents scattered across the far tails: those prices read as roughly 2%, 11%, 34%, 38% and 12% chances, and together they have to account for essentially the whole distribution. A 30-cent band is the market calling that outcome about a 30% shot, and what a price does and does not tell you is worth ten minutes before your first trade. Second, every contract settles against a single named weather station, and it is not always the airport you would guess. Houston settles on Hobby, not Bush Intercontinental. The number in your weather app is a city-wide blend; the number that settles the contract comes from one thermometer.

Right Now: The Evening Picture

The state of play at this edition's stamp: Eastern highs are locked, and tonight's lows are open. The high book is trading Sunday's highs, and by 6:30 PM ET the heating day is over east of the Rockies — the Eastern and Central numbers below are floors that have, for practical purposes, become the answers. Denver and the desert are in their last hour or two of daylight heat, and the Pacific cities, where the clock reads 3:30 in the afternoon, are the only rows still writing. The low book flipped roles at dawn: this morning's minimums settled Sunday's tickers, and the live low markets are about tonight — which makes them Monday's tickers, because a low-temp contract carries the date of the morning the low is observed.

Here is the publicly observed picture, as of 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, August 9, across every city we follow (values rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree for display):

City	High so far Sunday (°F)	Low this morning (°F, settled)
Atlanta	91	73
Austin	98.6	72
Boston	89.1	74
Chicago	85	67
Dallas	99	78
Denver	96.1	69
Houston	93	78
Las Vegas	110	—
Miami	92	82
Minneapolis	86	68
New Orleans	90	75
New York	87.1	75
Oklahoma City	103	71
Philadelphia	93	75
Phoenix	109.4	91.4
San Antonio	97	—
San Francisco	70	—
Seattle	76	55
Washington, DC	93	76

The dashes are cities the low-temperature book does not cover; it runs 16 cities to the high book's 19. These are the cities we follow, full stop. Which of them we act on, and at what price, is not published here, for reasons covered below.

The row promised up top: Oklahoma City, the city this page's morning editions keep using as the example of a number that means nothing early. It meant nothing again this morning — OKC settled its low ticker at 71 around dawn — and then a Plains August afternoon did what it does: the running high now reads 103, a climb of thirty-two degrees inside one heating day, the widest swing of any city carrying both books. The desert is louder still in absolute terms: Las Vegas touched 110, Phoenix 109.4, and Phoenix's settled low of 91.4 this morning was higher than the daily high that eight other cities on the board ever reached. Put Seattle's settled 55 next to Vegas's 110 and the same table spans fifty-five degrees of American August at a single stamp. That spread is also why the two books cannot be read with one clock — which brings us to the clocks.

The Two Clocks

A daily high is set in mid-afternoon, and the running maximum can only rise toward it. An overnight low is set pre-dawn, and the running minimum can only fall. So a partial observation is a floor on the high book and a ceiling on the low book, and the two books resolve at opposite ends of the day. By evening the floor and the answer are nearly the same thing: whatever else Sunday does, New York settles at 87.1 or above, and with the sun already low that "or above" is close to empty. Most people have never thought about a temperature as a number that can only move one direction, and it is the most useful idea on this page.

Evening is when the high book's clock has finished most of its work. East of the Rockies the question is answered: a 6:30 PM ET running maximum in Boston or Dallas is not going to be improved on, and those markets are really just waiting for the paperwork. The last live increments are all in the West — at 3:30 in the afternoon local time, Seattle's 76 and San Francisco's 70 can still tick up, and the desert pair can still add to 110 and 109.4 through their late afternoon. How much is left to run depends heavily on climate, not just the hour: humid cities barely move off their eventual number, while dry ones can swing hard — which is exactly why the still-open rows are the dry ones. On the low book, today's work is settled and tonight's is unwritten: every number in the right-hand column is final, and the live low markets are about the night ahead of this stamp — Monday's tickers, in the market's dating, with no observations banked yet. Tonight is where the whole board's remaining uncertainty lives.

The Risk Shape: One Loss Erases A Stack Of Wins

The key risk in these markets is payoff asymmetry, and a reader who copies this style of trade without understanding it is the failure mode we care most about.

Selling an unlikely outcome collects a small premium and risks most of a dollar. Roughly speaking, one loss erases the premiums from about 14 wins. That arithmetic, not the hit rate, is what makes position sizing the whole game. It also means a red day that wipes out a green stretch is the shape of the strategy working as designed, not a malfunction. If you take one number away from this page, take that one, not anything in the temperature table.

A Worked Example: The Arithmetic Of A Long-Shot NO

The numbers here are illustrative, not a position of ours. Take a long-shot temperature band where NO trades at 93 cents, which is the market treating the band as about a 7% shot to hit. Buying NO costs 93 cents per contract and pays $1 if the band misses, so a win collects 7 cents; when the band hits, the same contract goes to zero and the loss is the full 93 cents. That is more than 13 wins consumed by a single miss. Move the price one cent, to 94 cents, where the band is priced as a 6% shot, and the same trade collects 6 cents against a 94-cent loss, closer to 16 wins per miss. Real prices move between book-ends like these, which is why the ratio in the section above carries an "about" in front of it rather than a fixed number. A high win percentage cannot rescue that shape. Only position sizing can, which is why the sizing decision, not the forecast, is where this style of trading is actually won or lost.

Execution is the other half. In a market where the whole question is worth a few cents, crossing the spread to get filled instantly can cost more than the view is worth. An instant fill usually means you paid for it. We rest limit orders and wait, which also keeps us on the maker side of Kalshi's fee structure. And because one air mass can cover fifteen cities at once, positions in fifteen cities are not fifteen independent bets; spreading across climate types and both directions is the only real protection, and adding more cities inside the same air mass is not diversification.

Is Any Of This Working?

The honest answer, and the whole answer: we trade these markets, and we are not claiming it works yet. We do not publish performance figures on this page, in either direction. A young book cannot prove an edge, and a number printed here would be stale within days while anchoring you on it anyway.

There is also a structural reason the verdict takes a long time. Weather has no kickoff and no closing line. The market drifts continuously toward the answer as observations arrive, so a closing price is largely the outcome in disguise, and the usual sports-betting habit of grading yourself against the close does not exist here. A strategy like this has to be judged on realized settlement rates over a large sample, and that takes far longer than people expect.

What We Publish, And What We Don't

We publish the public weather picture, the shape of the market, and the mechanics in the explainers linked across this page. We do not publish live resting orders, our city, band or price. We are makers; printing a resting order before it fills would invite anyone to undercut it by a cent and take the queue spot we were waiting for. We also keep our selection thresholds and margin numbers to ourselves, and we do not print a results tally, for the reasons in the section above. You should leave this page understanding how these markets work, not holding a copy of our order sheet.

That also means there are no picks here, by design. If what you actually want is recommendations with reasoning attached, that is a different page: our free expert picks hub is where OddsShopper's cappers publish theirs. Those picks live on the sportsbook side of the shop, where tools like the odds screen and line shopping comparisons actually apply. Weather markets are not on those screens, and we are not going to pretend they are.

Kalshi Weather Markets FAQ

How Do Kalshi Weather Markets Settle?

Each contract settles to $1 or $0 against a single named weather station, the one written into the market rules, not a city-wide average. High-temperature contracts resolve off the day's maximum, which is set by mid-afternoon; low-temperature contracts resolve off the overnight minimum and carry the date of the morning the low is observed.

Is There Any Inside Information In Weather Markets?

There is no injury report and no locker-room leak, and the underlying forecast is publicly funded. That does not mean every participant is looking at the same model output, but it does mean a careful newcomer is not structurally behind on information the way they are in sports markets. The risk arithmetic above still applies in full.

Keep Reading: The Kalshi Library

The hub is the live layer; the durable explainers live in the pieces around it.

The weather markets themselves:

• Can you bet on the weather?: the from-zero introduction to how these markets work
• How to read a temperature band ladder: why one band's price only makes sense next to its neighbors
• Overnight lows and afternoon highs are two different games: the two clocks, in full
• The 24-hour clock of a weather market: when each book's question opens, tightens and closes
• The settlement station is not the city: the single most expensive detail newcomers miss
• When you sell a long shot, one loss costs many wins: the risk shape this page keeps repeating
• Making a price instead of paying one: the maker's side of a weather book
• How Kalshi's rain markets decide it rained: precipitation contracts and their own settlement quirks
• What a heat wave does to a weather book: correlation risk when one air mass covers the map
• How hurricane and named-storm contracts work: the season-scale cousin of the daily books
• The public data these markets settle on: where the settlement numbers actually come from
• Why a weather contract is a cleaner trade than a moneyline: the case for weather as the classroom

The exchange and its rules:

• Is Kalshi legit?: what CFTC regulation actually means
• Is trading on Kalshi gambling?: the legal answer and the honest one
• An exchange is not a sportsbook: where the money actually goes
• Can you take both sides on Kalshi?: what holding YES and NO at once really does
• How to read Kalshi odds: prices as probabilities, the skill every ladder demands
• Kalshi's fees, explained: why maker vs. taker is the first real decision you make
• Order types on Kalshi, and when each one is wrong: the mechanics behind resting versus crossing
• What happens when a market's outcome is disputed: the process after a messy settlement
• What actually happens when a contract settles: the mechanics after the question is answered
• Is Kalshi FDIC insured?: where your money actually sits
• Kalshi's age requirement: how old you have to be, and why
• How to delete your Kalshi account: and what happens to your money when you do
• Kalshi vs. DraftKings: two different products that only look alike
• Getting started with sports markets on Kalshi: the on-ramp for the sports side of the exchange

Markets beyond the weather:

• Trading economic data: Fed, CPI and jobs markets: the calendar-driven side of the exchange
• How the "number of rate cuts" market counts a cut: a settlement rule worth reading twice
• How Kalshi's jobs-report contracts work: the payroll-print cousin of the Fed markets
• Recession odds on Kalshi: 2026 vs 2027: why the two years are priced differently
• How Kalshi gas price contracts settle: and who AAA is
• The tech layoffs market: and what happens when an exchange misprints a strike
• Will there be a government shutdown?: what the market says
• Kalshi's Supreme Court markets: who, when, and who leaves
• Reading Kalshi's pardon market: who the contracts say gets a pardon
• Kalshi's impeachment markets: what the contract actually requires
• Will Trump resign? What the market prices: a low-probability contract, read carefully
• Rotten Tomatoes contracts: the score that settles is not the score you see
• What actually counts as an OpenAI IPO on Kalshi: definitions doing the heavy lifting
• How Bitcoin price contracts work on Kalshi: crypto through the event-contract lens
• Bitcoin back to $100K: the timing ladder: the same ladder logic applied to a crypto market
• How MLB home run contracts work on Kalshi: the daily sports cousin of the temperature books
• Will there be an MLB lockout?: what the market says about 2027
• College Football Playoff odds on Kalshi: all 50 teams, scored
• The Eagles backfield rushing market: a player-share question priced as a contract
• Bijan Robinson's record contract: what the market actually prices
• Nobody wants to bet on Russell Westbrook: a next-team board, read closely
• Iowa Senate odds: the model verdict vs. the market: an AI panel graded against Kalshi's price
• Ohio Governor odds: the model verdict vs. the market: the same exercise, different race
• Georgia Senate odds: the model verdict vs. the market: the third race in the series

The wider prediction-market picture:

• How prediction markets work: the foundation piece for all of this
• Are prediction markets actually accurate?: what the research says about prices as forecasts
• A 30-cent contract does not mean 30%, or does it?: reading a price as a probability, carefully
• What actually moves a prediction market price: the flow behind the number
• Why liquidity decides whether you can trade: the thing thin books do not forgive
• Using prediction markets to hedge real exposure: the practical use case beyond speculation
• Event contracts vs. futures and options: where these instruments sit in the derivatives family
• How election markets work: and what their prices mean
• The same contract, priced differently on different exchanges: why venues disagree and what it means
• Kalshi vs. Polymarket: how the two big exchanges differ
• Kalshi vs. Robinhood: event contracts inside a brokerage app
• How Polymarket works: the other major venue, explained
• Is Polymarket legit?: the regulation question, answered for the other venue
• What it actually costs to trade on Polymarket: the fee structure on the other venue
• Polymarket deposits and withdrawals: which Polymarket you are actually using
• Polymarket customer service: getting help on the right Polymarket
• How Novig works: peer-to-peer sports trading, and only sports
• Novig deposits and withdrawals: what to expect getting money in and out
• The best prediction market platforms, compared: who each venue is actually for
• Does prediction market arbitrage actually work?: cross-venue price gaps, real and illusory
• Are prediction markets legal?: the regulatory picture, state by state
• Is betting on elections legal?: the federal rule and the state patchwork

The Clock Resets At Midnight

It will, in a few hours: the high book will close out its 19 questions, tonight's lows will start banking toward Monday's tickers, and the whole cycle begins again at its emptiest. That is what an evening edition is for — not anticipation, but the finished shape of a day: floors that quietly became verdicts, a settled column sitting beside a night that has not happened yet, and one Plains city that climbed thirty-two degrees to remind you why its morning number deserved no trust. That rhythm is what makes weather the cleanest classroom in prediction markets: the information is public, the physics are the physics, and nobody is trading on a leak. What a newcomer can get wrong is the arithmetic of one loss against a long stack of wins, and the patience to judge any strategy on a large sample instead of a good weekend. Sunday's board at 6:30 PM holds the lesson in one pairing — Oklahoma City's 103, which its 71-degree dawn never hinted at, beside a low book whose only open question is the night to come — and this page will keep numbers like that in front of you, every edition.

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Disclosure. Stokastic's prediction-markets desk trades these markets and holds positions in them; "we" on this page refers to that desk, not to the byline author individually. We have no affiliate or commercial relationship with Kalshi; we do carry sign-up offers for some other prediction-market and betting platforms, and any page comparing Kalshi to a platform that pays us discloses that relationship on the page. Kalshi weather contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives traded on a designated contract market, not sportsbook wagers, and they can lose their full value. 18+. Available where Kalshi operates. Risk of loss is real and, on the side we trade, individually large. This is an open research log of a strategy we have not yet proven. Nothing here is trading advice.